Alstom's New Chief Faces Investor Reckoning Before 13 May Results

Alstom shares closed at €16.36 on Wednesday, holding near 52-week lows, as investors brace for full-year results on 13 May that have become a defining test for new chief executive Martin Sion.

The Saint-Ouen-based rail group has shed nearly 36% of its market value over the past three months, taking its capitalisation to around €7.5bn, after Sion used a hastily convened analyst call on 16 April to abandon a €1.5bn three-year free cash flow target that had been central to the company's medium-term recovery story.

Sion, who succeeded decade-long incumbent Henri Poupart-Lafarge on 1 April, told analysts the results were "not the way I was expecting to start my mandate", citing slower-than-planned production ramp-ups on newer rolling stock platforms. Despite a record order intake of €27.6bn and an order backlog of around €100bn, the group's adjusted EBIT margin contracted to 6%, while free cash flow fell to around €330m from €502m a year earlier. The medium-term ambition of an 8 to 10% adjusted margin will no longer be met by 2026/27.

Sell-side opinion has hardened. Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the stock to "reduce" from "hold" and cut its 12-month target price to €25 from €27.50, while Barclays reaffirmed its sell rating on 23 April. The technical picture is no kinder: the RSI sits at 25, deep in oversold territory, with the share price hugging the lower Bollinger Band.

For Sion, a former ArianeGroup chief brought in to tighten execution, the agenda is narrowing. He has flagged a portfolio review and a reassessment of Alstom's industrial footprint across plants in France, Germany and Italy, with a new action plan due later in the fiscal year. The 13 May print will be the first hard read on whether Europe's largest train manufacturer can be stabilised before further investor confidence drains away.