Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd Signal Cautious Return to Suez After Two-Year Absence

The Gemini Cooperation, the shipping alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has announced a phased return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal beginning in mid-February, marking the most significant step yet toward restoring normal operations on the world's busiest trade artery after more than two years of disruption.

The move follows a six-month period without confirmed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and comes after French carrier CMA CGM led the way with tentative transits in late 2025, including sending the 23,000 TEU CMA CGM Jacques Saadé — one of the largest container ships afloat — through the canal in December. Maersk had separately completed a quiet transit with the Maersk Sebarok that same month, its first since the crisis began.

For European shippers, the stakes are considerable. The Cape of Good Hope diversion added between two and three weeks to Asia-Europe transit times and drove a roughly 46 per cent increase in container shipping carbon emissions during 2024. The Suez route's restoration promises to cut both costs and fuel consumption, while releasing an estimated six per cent of global fleet capacity back into the market as vessels spend less time at sea.

Yet the return carries risks. Analysts at Xeneta have warned that vessels rerouted via Suez will arrive at European ports simultaneously with ships already in transit around Africa, potentially triggering severe congestion at terminals already operating under strain. Arrivals at European hubs could spike by between 10 and 39 per cent during the transition, with knock-on disruption expected to ripple through road, rail, and barge networks for weeks.

Insurance premiums for Red Sea transits remain elevated, and both carriers have insisted all voyages will be conducted with naval escort under the EU's Operation Aspides. The Suez Canal Authority has forecast traffic returning to normal levels by the second half of 2026 — a timeline that would provide a welcome revenue lifeline for Egypt but one that hinges on a security environment the industry regards as fragile at best.