European Carriers Brace for Prolonged Gulf Detour as Hormuz 'Reopening' Falters

Europe's largest container lines are preparing for an extended detour around the Cape of Good Hope, after fresh incidents in the Strait of Hormuz undermined declarations from Washington and Tehran that the waterway is open to commercial traffic.

AP Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, which together move the bulk of Asia-Europe container trade, have maintained the Trans-Suez suspensions first imposed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

Xeneta data shows Far East to North Europe spot rates have climbed 29 per cent since the conflict began, with Mediterranean rates up 23 per cent, pushing a forty-foot box back to levels last seen at the peak of the Red Sea crisis.

The commercial squeeze is compounded by the full phase-in of the EU Emissions Trading System, which from 1 January now requires carriers to surrender allowances for 100 per cent of verified emissions on EU-linked voyages, up from 70 per cent in 2025. Hapag-Lloyd has lifted its EU ETS surcharge by roughly 45 per cent, with analysts at Ship and Bunker estimating compliance costs of more than $319 per tonne of VLSFO burned on intra-EU voyages.

European navies are also back in focus. Belgium, the Netherlands and France retain mine clearance capacity that could help secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and industry bodies are privately lobbying Brussels to coordinate a NATO-led mission should Iranian mines be confirmed in the shipping lanes Tehran unilaterally redesignated last week.

For European shippers, the near-term calculus is unchanged. Cape routing remains the default through at least the third quarter, adding roughly two weeks to transit times. With the container orderbook at a record 34 per cent of the active fleet, European operators face a familiar paradox: higher rates today, and the near certainty of a rate collapse the moment the Gulf reopens.