Europe's Airlines Brace for Systemic Jet Fuel Crisis

Europe's aviation industry is confronting its most acute supply shock since the pandemic, as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz drains jet fuel reserves at airports across the continent and forces carriers to begin cutting flights weeks before the peak summer season.

Airports Council International Europe, which represents airports across the European Union, warned the bloc on 9 April that unless stable transit through the Strait resumes within roughly three weeks, systemic shortages could emerge at airports across the EU. In a letter to EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas and Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, ACI Europe director general Olivier Jankovec warned that paraffin reserves are running critically low, with several European states holding strategic reserves sufficient for only eight to ten days before rationing would be required.

The numbers behind the warning are stark. Around 40 per cent of the world's jet fuel supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and jet fuel was trading at around $1,573 per tonne, more than double its pre-conflict level.

Airlines are already responding. SAS has cancelled around 1,000 flights, Lufthansa has considered grounding up to 5 per cent of its fleet, and Air France-KLM has introduced long-haul surcharges. Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary warned publicly that between 10 and 25 per cent of supplies could be at risk in May and June. Wizz Air's chief executive warned in March of a 50 million euro hit to its 2026 net profit, while Virgin Atlantic's chief executive told the Financial Times the airline would struggle to turn a profit this year even after adding fuel surcharges.

ACI Europe said its 170 million summer travellers face potential flight cuts, fuel rationing and higher fares if supply disruptions continue, and called on the Commission to consider extraordinary measures including EU-wide collective fuel purchasing and targeted obligations on refineries to prioritise jet fuel production.

A US-Iran ceasefire came into effect this week, but the Strait remains effectively closed, with an estimated 170 million barrels still blocked in the Persian Gulf. The summer season clock is ticking.