CMA CGM Reverses Suez Return, Exposing Fragility of Red Sea Shipping Recovery

French container giant CMA CGM abruptly reversed course on Red Sea transits this week, rerouting three major Asia-Europe services back around the Cape of Good Hope mere days after Danish rival Maersk announced its first structural return to the Suez Canal in over two years.

The volte-face, confirmed in a 20 January customer advisory, affects the carrier's FAL1, FAL3 and MEX services, which CMA CGM diverted citing a "complex and uncertain international context." The decision reverses weeks of carefully choreographed preparations that had positioned the French line as the industry's most aggressive advocate for resuming trans-Suez operations.

CMA CGM had deployed the 23,000-TEU CMA CGM Jacques Saade through the canal in December—the largest vessel to attempt the passage in two years—whilst simultaneously announcing plans to route its India-US INDAMEX service via Suez from January. Transit times on the FAL1 service had already compressed from 105 days to 98 following the resumption, delivering tangible schedule improvements that now evaporate with the renewed diversion.

Xeneta senior analyst Destine Ozuygur warned the stop-start approach proves more damaging than consistent Cape routing. "Unpredictability is toxic for supply chains," she stated, noting shippers who paid premium rates for faster Suez transit now face week-long delays and mounting uncertainty over detention and warehousing costs.

The reversal arrives at a precarious moment for container economics. Cape diversions continue absorbing approximately 2 million TEUs of effective capacity whilst spot rates on Far East-Europe lanes have collapsed over 50 percent since early 2025. Industry observers note a full-scale Suez reopening would flood markets with released capacity, potentially triggering freight rate declines exceeding 25 percent across 2026.

Maersk's contrasting commitment to maintaining its MECL service via Suez underscores deepening strategic divergence amongst major carriers. Whilst the Danish operator characterised its return as permanent following successful trials, CMA CGM's retreat—allegedly influenced by Iranian unrest and Trump administration warnings regarding potential regional intervention—exposes how geopolitical volatility continues dictating operational certainty over commercial logic in global maritime networks.