Baltic States Order Trains for a Railway That Is Not Yet Built

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have launched a joint tender for up to 20 high-speed regional trains to run on the Rail Baltica corridor, pressing ahead with rolling stock procurement even as the infrastructure those trains are meant to serve remains years from completion.

The tender, published in mid-March, covers electric multiple units capable of 200 kilometres per hour on the European standard gauge. Estonia is leading the initial order with five trains and an option for two more. Latvia and Lithuania have reserved the right to follow, with options for five and eight units, respectively, though neither has yet committed financially.

That caution is telling. Rail Baltica, the 870-kilometre line intended to link Tallinn with Warsaw via Riga and Kaunas, carries a project cost that has ballooned to an estimated €23.8 billion. A 2024 audit found a funding shortfall of more than €10 billion for the first phase alone, and the European Court of Auditors noted earlier this year that a clear implementation timeline beyond phase one no longer exists. Latvia's decision to retain the right to order trains within three years of Estonia's first units entering service is less a statement of confidence than a form of structured optionality.

Yet the geopolitical logic behind pressing forward is hard to argue with. Officials at the launch in Tallinn were explicit: connectivity on the north-eastern flank of the European Union is, as Latvia's transport ministry put it, a matter of security, resilience and strategic autonomy. Rail Baltica is, at its core, a NATO logistics corridor dressed in passenger railway clothing.

The tender closes on 4 May. Manufacturers from Alstom to Stadler and Siemens are likely to be watching closely. The contract for the first firm order is modest in volume, but the longer-term fleet requirements across three markets make it worth the bid.