Opinion: Shipping’s Overcapacity Problem Is Becoming Europe’s Supply-Chain Risk

The container shipping industry received a clear warning in mid-November when CMA CGM stated that the sector is heading for a “tough year ahead.” The company highlighted weakening demand and a growing oversupply of vessels as the main pressure points. The comments, published on 14 November, landed at a time when freight rates continue to slide on major trade routes. They have now fallen far from the levels seen during the post-pandemic congestion period, according to recent market assessments.

The industry is feeling the effects of decisions made during the 2020 to 2022 boom. Shipping lines expanded fleets aggressively during that period, and many of those vessels are now being delivered into a much softer global market. Cargo volumes on the Asia to Europe and transatlantic routes have not kept pace with the increase in available capacity. Analysts have warned that this supply gap may persist well into 2026.

For Europe, the implications are significant. Ports, freight forwarders and logistics operators rely on predictable schedules and consistent vessel deployment. Prolonged overcapacity can lead carriers to cut service frequency, idle ships or consolidate routes. Each of these actions can introduce volatility into schedules that businesses depend on.

Importers may welcome lower freight costs in the short term. However, the underlying instability could create planning risks for manufacturers and retailers. More unpredictable sailing schedules can translate into longer lead times and less reliable delivery windows. These conditions complicate inventory planning, working-capital allocation and production cycles.

There is also a long-term concern. When profits tighten, carriers tend to delay investment in new, more efficient or lower-emission vessels. This can hinder progress toward environmental regulation goals, including the European Union’s initiatives on greener transport corridors and emissions-reduction targets.

The November signal from CMA CGM should not be viewed as a routine market adjustment. It points to a structural imbalance between the size of the global fleet and the demand it serves. Europe, which depends heavily on maritime trade for both consumer goods and industrial inputs, has a direct interest in how this imbalance is resolved. The coming year may require a recalibration of sourcing strategies, logistics planning and environmental policy if the sector is to stabilise and adapt.