Maersk Counts the Cost of Hormuz Closure as Europe Braces for Prolonged Energy Shock

Maersk has warned that the war in Iran is adding nearly $500 million a month to its fuel bill, exposing the depth of European shipping's exposure to an energy shock that the Danish carrier said will persist long after any ceasefire is struck.

The Copenhagen-listed group, widely regarded as a bellwether for global trade, reported first-quarter EBITDA of $1.75 billion last week, ahead of analyst expectations of $1.66 billion. Revenue slipped 2.6 per cent year on year to $13 billion. Shares fell as much as 6.5 per cent on the day of the results, their steepest one-day decline in more than a year, before stabilising this week.

Chief executive Vincent Clerc told investors that bunker fuel prices had surged from roughly $600 per metric ton before the conflict to just under $1,000, adding around 3 billion Danish crowns to monthly operating costs. The figure equates to almost $6 billion in annualised cost inflation from the energy shock alone.

Maersk has so far passed most of the burden through to shippers via contract renegotiations and higher spot rates, which have risen about 40 per cent since fighting began on 28 February. The company maintained its full-year underlying EBITDA guidance of between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, though Clerc cautioned that the second and third quarters would look materially different.

Six Maersk vessels remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz running at roughly 5 per cent of pre-war volumes, according to Kpler. Brussels is watching closely: Qatar previously supplied 12 to 14 per cent of EU LNG imports through the strait, all currently subject to force majeure.

Maersk continues to divert Asia-Europe cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, suspending its tentative Suez resumption plans indefinitely.