Italo plots €3.6bn German assault on Deutsche Bahn's high-speed monopoly

Italo, Italy's largest private high-speed rail operator, is preparing a €3.6bn push into Germany that would mount the most ambitious challenge yet to Deutsche Bahn's grip on Europe's largest long-distance passenger market.

Chief executive Gianbattista La Rocca has confirmed the carrier intends to launch services in mid-2028, deploying an initial fleet of 26 Siemens Velaro trainsets across roughly 1,300km of network linking 18 German cities. An option for a further 14 trains sits on the table.

The investment, set out in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, splits into roughly €1.2bn for rolling stock and €2.4bn covering a 30-year maintenance contract, staff training, station upgrades and the IT backbone for ticketing and operations. Italo has already incorporated a German subsidiary, secured a railway licence and is finalising a safety certificate.

The choice of platform is pointed. The Velaro shares its DNA with Deutsche Bahn's own ICE 3neo, a homologation shortcut designed to compress certification timelines on a network that has historically been one of Europe's hardest to enter. Frankfurt to Cologne and Munich to Berlin are tipped as likely opening corridors, both among Germany's busiest and most lucrative.

Germany's long-distance rail market carries between 110mn and 120mn passengers a year, with Italo's analysis suggesting it could expand by at least 40 per cent under genuine competition. The move would extend an open-access model that has already eroded Trenitalia's dominance at home, where Italo controls roughly half the high-speed market.

For Brussels, this is a test case. The European Commission has long pressed for a single high-speed market, and Italo's German bet, alongside Trenitalia's separate plans for services through the Channel Tunnel, will sharpen scrutiny of access charges, slot allocation and the residual advantages enjoyed by incumbent state operators.