European Shippers Face Renewed Rate Pressure as Post-Holiday Demand Softens

Container freight rates declined in early November as European importers completed pre-Christmas inventory builds, intensifying pressure on carriers already navigating overcapacity and persistent Red Sea diversions that continue to reshape global shipping patterns.

The composite price index fell 5 per cent between the first and second weeks of November, with Drewry's World Container Index placing the global average price of shipping a 40-foot container at $1,859 as of 13 November. The decline reflects the fact that most major retailers in Europe and North America have already received imports of seasonal merchandise they plan to sell for Christmas and the New Year.

Yet the downward trajectory masks structural tensions. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that rates face downward pressure from both the seasonal lull in demand and growing capacity on major East-West trades, despite carriers' attempts to implement general rate increases through November.

Vessel wait times have grown to eight days at some European ports, even as global schedule reliability improves and capacity is slowly being reinstated on eastbound Trans-Pacific routes. The congestion underscores infrastructure constraints as European facilities struggle to absorb diverted Cape of Good Hope traffic whilst maintaining operational tempo.

Global container shipping rates remain 46 per cent lower than November last year, reflecting the industry's transition from crisis-driven pricing to structural overcapacity concerns. 2025 is expected to bring softer freight rates and slower volume growth as congestion eases and economic uncertainties mount, according to Drewry's latest financial health assessment of major carriers.

The outlook suggests European importers may benefit from moderating costs in coming months, particularly if the current ceasefire between Israel and Palestine enables more shipping traffic to flow through the Suez canal—though carriers remain cautious about abandoning established Cape routing given sustained geopolitical uncertainties.