European Carriers Cement Cape Detours as Hormuz Stalemate Enters Fourth Month

European container lines are formalising what began as an emergency rerouting into a structural shift, as the Strait of Hormuz remains commercially closed nearly twelve weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the most severe Middle East shipping disruption on record.

A.P. Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM continue to route Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, with all four carriers maintaining the suspension of Persian Gulf transits first imposed in early March. Drewry's World Container Index recorded double-digit spot rate gains in the week to 14 May, with carriers layering emergency freight surcharges, general rate increases and peak season levies onto firmer FAK pricing. Hapag-Lloyd's war risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU for Upper Gulf deliveries remains in force, while CMA CGM's $2,000 emergency conflict surcharge has held since March.

The implications for European industry are sharpening. Qatar supplies roughly 12 to 14 per cent of Europe's LNG, all of it routed through Hormuz under normal conditions. Combined with renewed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, the simultaneous closure of both Middle Eastern corridors marks an unprecedented constraint on Asia-Europe trade. Around 124 container liner services covering 520 vessels would ordinarily call at least one Persian Gulf port.

France continues to lead a European naval escort coalition first proposed by President Macron in March, although insurers have yet to restore protection and indemnity cover withdrawn on 5 March. The US has indicated mine clearance alone would take six months once hostilities ease.

For Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd shareholders, the surcharge regime has cushioned what HSBC had previously projected as a 9 to 16 per cent rate decline this year. Bank of America still expects soft 2026 guidance, with Maersk's buyback potentially halved.