European Airlines Brace for Record Winter as Capacity Surges 7% Amid Supply Chain Pressures

European aviation capacity is poised to reach unprecedented levels during the winter 2025-2026 season despite persistent supply chain constraints and intensifying geopolitical tensions, with low-cost carriers driving growth as legacy airlines struggle to match pre-pandemic performance.

Carriers across the continent will offer a record 745 million seats during the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, representing a 7 per cent increase year-on-year and 8.8 per cent above the final pre-pandemic winter of 2018-2019. The expansion occurs against a backdrop of operational disruptions and renewed macroeconomic uncertainties that continue pressuring airline margins.

Low-cost carriers dominate the growth trajectory. Ryanair maintains its position as Europe's largest airline with 98.3 million seats scheduled for the two-quarter period, a 7.1 per cent annual increase. The carrier commands 14.5 million November seats alone, operating 7.9 million more than second-placed easyJet. Wizz Air plans aggressive capacity expansion of 26.3 per cent to 40.4 million seats after resolving A320neo engine issues that grounded portions of its fleet over the past two years.

Southern and Eastern European markets fuel the expansion, with Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain surpassing pre-pandemic seat counts through robust leisure demand. Many destinations strategically extend summer services beyond October's traditional cutoff. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Balkan nations record double-digit passenger gains driven by LCC expansion and rising disposable incomes.

Legacy carriers lag considerably. The five largest traditional airlines in Europe's top ten struggle to restore 2019 capacity levels, highlighting operational challenges facing established carriers competing against more agile low-cost competitors.

Overall European capacity for November 2025 totals 125.8 million seats, with international services growing 7 per cent whilst domestic capacity contracts 1.9 per cent. Travel to the Middle East surged 20.2 per cent, adding 1.7 million seats as airlines capitalise on strong demand to the region.