Europe's Shipping Lifelines Run Dry as Two Corridors Close at Once

For the first time in modern maritime history, both of the Middle East's major shipping arteries are simultaneously closed to commercial traffic, and European supply chains are absorbing consequences that go well beyond elevated freight rates.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory action from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Within 48 hours, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC had all suspended transits. The Houthis, seizing the moment, resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, reversing the fragile stabilisation that had taken hold since an October ceasefire. The result is a pincer: the two routes that between them carry the vast majority of Asian and Gulf cargo to Europe are now both impassable.

The diversion around the Cape of Good Hope adds ten to fourteen days to standard Asia-Europe voyages and has driven a sharp surge in operating costs at a particularly punishing moment. War-risk surcharges of between $80 and $180 per TEU are being applied at short notice, with some carriers levying them retroactively on bookings made at pre-disruption rates.

The energy dimension is acute. The strait carries roughly twenty percent of the world's daily oil supply and a fifth of global LNG. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel on 8 March for the first time in four years, peaking at $126. For European importers, that feeds directly into the bunker cost embedded in every freight contract.

UNCTAD has warned that global merchandise trade growth may halve in 2026 as a result, with vessel transits through the strait falling ninety-five percent compared with February averages. European policymakers are watching closely. France and South Korea agreed on 5 April to coordinate efforts to reopen the passage, but with military tensions still elevated and no timeline in sight for a normalisation of transit conditions, the continent's logistics sector faces a prolonged and expensive reroute.