Brussels and Rome Circle a Cross-Channel Prize Long Held by SNCF

The race to break Eurostar's three-decade monopoly through the Channel Tunnel is sharpening into a contest between Europe's state-backed operators and Sir Richard Branson's Virgin, with Italy's Ferrovie dello Stato manoeuvring to reach London first.

For more than thirty years, Eurostar, part of France's SNCF Voyageurs, has been the sole passenger operator through the tunnel, commanding roughly four-fifths of the Paris-London market and carrying around 20 million passengers last year. That position now faces a coordinated assault from rivals betting that liberalisation will reward the boldest mover.

Virgin secured a symbolic advantage last autumn when Britain's Office of Rail and Road awarded it shared access to Temple Mills, the only depot connected to the high-speed line capable of housing Channel Tunnel rolling stock. A draft access agreement between Virgin and Eurostar has since been submitted to the regulator. Virgin plans to mirror Eurostar's St Pancras network to Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam from 2030, ordering a fleet of Alstom trains.

Yet Trenitalia, the FS subsidiary shut out of Temple Mills, insists it can launch Paris-London services from 2029, a year ahead of Virgin, by building its own maintenance depot near Paris. The Italian group is working with US investment manager Certares to court business travellers and accelerate the shift from air to rail, with an order for new trains reportedly near completion.

Eurostar, for its part, has projected calm, dismissing the threat as years away while committing to up to 50 new double-decker Alstom trains from 2031 and a target of 30 million passengers. The economics remain daunting: tunnel-certified trainsets can cost around €40 million each, and every operator must still pay Getlink to use the tunnel. For Europe's rail liberalisation drive, the prize is finally contestable.