Opinion: Europe's Electric Transition Proceeds Despite Industry's Reluctance to Lead It

European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA)'s registration data released 25 November reveals an automotive market transformation that industry executives publicly claim cannot happen whilst simultaneously presiding over its steady progression. October year-to-date figures show battery-electric vehicles capturing 16.4% of European market share, up from 13.2% the previous year, a 25.7% volume increase delivering 1.47 million electric registrations through October. Yet the same manufacturers achieving these numbers spent the year lobbying Brussels to weaken 2030 and 2035 emissions targets, insisting current regulatory frameworks impose impossible burdens.

The contradiction deserves examination. European manufacturers are selling electric vehicles at record rates—October alone saw 38.6% year-on-year growth in battery-electric registrations, with plug-in hybrids surging 43.2%. Germany, Europe's largest market, recorded 39.4% growth in electric sales. Spain jumped 89.7%, Poland 124.6%. These are not marginal improvements but transformational shifts occurring despite manufacturers' public insistence that demand remains weak and transition timelines

unrealistic.

What genuinely troubles manufacturers surfaces in the distribution of that 34.6% hybrid market share that ACEA trumpets as "most popular powertrain choice." The association conveniently aggregates full hybrids and mild hybrids into a single category, treating vehicles that can barely travel two kilometres electrically, or not at all, as evidence of electrification progress. This statistical sleight-of-hand disguises the reality that consumers are selecting halfway technologies because manufacturers have failed to deliver affordable battery-electric alternatives.

Consider pricing strategy. Battery costs fell 27% between 2022 and year-end 2025, with another 28% decline projected through 2027. Charging infrastructure now covers 77% of EU core highway networks, with member states surpassing 2025 public charging targets. Market conditions exist for mass-market electric vehicles—yet European manufacturers maintain elevated price premiums that ensure electric models remain inaccessible to average buyers whilst Chinese competitors offer compelling alternatives at accessible price points.

The October data exposes this failure starkly. BYD registered 240% sales growth year-to-date in the EU despite facing 27% import tariffs European manufacturers demanded for "protection." Tesla, despite 40% sales decline owing to quarterly delivery patterns and October being traditionally weak, still sold 117,000 vehicles through October. Chinese manufacturers are not winning through subsidy advantage but by offering products consumers actually choose to purchase at prices they can afford.

European manufacturers' response to this competition has been instructive. Rather than accelerate affordable model development, they lobbied successfully for three-year CO2 averaging that Transport & Environment estimates will reduce electric sales by 2 million units through 2027. Rather than accept narrower margins to build volume leadership, they maintain premium pricing extracting maximum profit from early adopters whilst ceding mass-market positioning to competitors willing to prioritise scale over short-term returns.

Volkswagen Group illustrates the strategic incoherence perfectly. The conglomerate recorded 5.1% sales growth through October but spent the year negotiating 35,000 German job cuts whilst shifting Golf production to Mexico. The manufacturer that once defined mass-market automotive now treats the ID.2, its long-promised €25,000 electric model, as perpetually "coming next year" whilst Chinese manufacturers already sell capable electric vehicles below that threshold.

Germany's 39.4% electric growth deserves particular attention given Berlin's subsidy withdrawal in late 2023. Manufacturers insisted the cut would devastate demand, yet German electric sales surged once competitive models with acceptable pricing appeared. This suggests demand responds primarily to product-market fit rather than subsidy levels, undermining manufacturers' claims that weak sales reflect insufficient government support rather than their own pricing and product decisions.

The registration data reveals another inconvenient truth: petrol and diesel combined now represent just 36.6% of European market share, down from 46.3% one year prior. Conventional powertrains are collapsing faster than manufacturers prepared for, yet they continue optimising production and cost structures around internal combustion whilst treating electrification as compliance necessity rather than commercial imperative.

ACEA's statement that 16.4% electric share remains "below the pace required at this stage of the transition" carries particular irony given the association spent the year advocating for weaker transition requirements. Mercedes-Benz, holding ACEA's presidency whilst being the only major European manufacturer unable to meet 2025-27 targets independently, embodies this contradiction, leading lobbying efforts to weaken standards it alone cannot meet whilst competitors demonstrate compliance feasibility.

The fundamental question becomes: why should policymakers weaken targets manufacturers are actually meeting whilst selling record electric volumes? The October data demonstrates European manufacturers can deliver when properly incentivised. Germany's post-subsidy surge proves demand exists when products merit purchase. Chinese competitors' success despite tariffs confirms European manufacturers' struggles reflect strategic choices rather than impossible circumstances.

What manufacturers genuinely seek through regulatory relief is permission to delay inevitable transitions whilst protecting legacy business models that market dynamics are already rendering obsolete. The hybrid surge they celebrate as progress actually represents consumer compromise, buyers selecting partial electrification because manufacturers price pure electric alternatives beyond reach whilst Chinese competitors demonstrate such pricing is commercially viable.

Europe's transition proceeds apace. Whether European manufacturers emerge as leaders or cautionary tales depends entirely on choices they make today. The October numbers suggest they possess capability required for success. Whether they possess will to prioritise long-term competitiveness over short-term margin optimisation remains the outstanding question. Brussels contemplating regulatory relief should recognise that manufacturers achieving record electric sales whilst demanding weaker targets are not seeking survival support but rather protection from consequences of their own strategic failures.