Gemini Cooperation Exceeds Reliability Targets as Container Lines Navigate Volatile Rate Environment

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation achieved schedule reliability above 90 per cent in its initial months of operation, providing operational stability even as container spot rates continued declining through early November amid weakening seasonal demand.

The alliance, fully implemented in June 2025, operates approximately 340 vessels across 57 services with total capacity of 3.7 million TEU focused on East-West trades. Transpacific eastbound on-time performance reached 96.2 per cent into North America West Coast and 94.1 per cent to East Coast ports by late October, demonstrating the network's resilience despite ongoing Red Sea disruptions.

Yet operational success contrasts sharply with market pressures. Container spot rates have declined continuously since July, with the Asia-US West Coast lane particularly dire. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index assessed rates at just $1,460 per FEU by late October, down 11 per cent week-on-week and below break-even levels for many carriers.

Hapag-Lloyd reported Group EBITDA of $2.8 billion for the first nine months of 2025, with earnings improving in third quarter versus second but remaining significantly below prior-year levels due to low freight rates and upward cost pressure. Transport volumes increased 9 per cent to 10.2 million TEU whilst average freight rates fell 4.8 per cent to $1,397 per TEU.

The carrier announced plans to slash over $1 billion in costs by 2026, largely driven by synergies from Gemini Cooperation. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen indicated the alliance transition cost a three-digit-million-dollar figure, but anticipated $350-400 million in savings through 2026 from overlapping network efficiencies.

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc confirmed cost savings remained on track during third quarter earnings, with additional updates planned for November. The company raised full-year 2025 volume growth forecasts to 2-4 per cent from previous guidance of -1 to 4 per cent, citing resilient demand outside North America despite considerable macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.