European Aviation Industry Warns Decarbonisation Costs Surge to €2.4 Trillion Amid SAF Price Pressures

European aviation sector associations released an updated Destination 2050 roadmap warning that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require total expenditures of €2.4 trillion, representing a €510 billion increase from previous estimates driven primarily by escalating sustainable aviation fuel market prices, according to the comprehensive report published in early February.

The revised cost projections, prepared by Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre and SEO Amsterdam Economics, indicate premium decarbonisation expenditures have expanded from €820 billion to €1.3 trillion, a 57% increase largely attributable to higher-than-anticipated SAF pricing. The updated analysis confirms net-zero remains technically achievable through combined measures with limited reliance on out-of-sector carbon removals, though implementation demands urgent coordinated action from policymakers and investors.

Sustainable aviation fuels alongside aircraft and engine technological improvements will account for 83% of total emissions reductions by 2050, with alternative fuels including SAF and hydrogen responsible for 56% of reductions equating to approximately 163 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Aircraft and engine technology advances will contribute 79 million tonnes representing 27% of overall reductions, whilst air traffic management and operational efficiency improvements will enable 7.8% fuel burn reduction per flight by 2030 escalating to 11.6% by 2050.

The roadmap relies on market-based measures including the European Union Emissions Trading System and ICAO's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation to bridge gaps until alternative fuels achieve sufficient impact, with economic measures comprising 12% of total emission reductions. Implementation at scale and speed outlined in the roadmap proves compatible with a 1.7-degree Celsius pathway at 66% likelihood, though additional measures would be required for stricter carbon budgets associated with 1.5-degree targets.

Industry leaders representing airlines, airports, air navigation service providers and aerospace manufacturers called upon European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to establish a comprehensive Aviation Strategy incorporating sustainable aviation fuel industrial policy with necessary financial instruments. Armando Brunini, SEA Milan Airports chief executive and ACI Europe president, emphasised the sector cannot achieve decarbonisation objectives independently, requiring immediate policy support to exploit a rapidly closing window of opportunity.