Europe Confronts Its Energy Vulnerability as the Hormuz Chokepoint Holds

Three weeks into the effective closure of the world's most critical shipping lane, European capitals are grappling with the limits of their influence and the depth of their exposure.

The numbers tell their own story. Just 21 tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began on 28 February, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the fighting broke out. For Europe, which relies on the strait for a significant share of its oil and liquefied natural gas imports, the arithmetic of this crisis is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March for the first time in four years, rising to $126 at its peak — a figure that has landed with particular force on a continent still nursing the inflationary wounds of the post-pandemic era. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG shipments on 4 March after Iranian attacks on its Ras Laffan facilities, removing roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market overnight.

European policymakers have found themselves squeezed between Washington's demands and the realities on the ground. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would lead an EU mission to reopen the strait, while the International Energy Agency's release of 400,000 barrels of oil from strategic reserves failed to calm energy markets. Meanwhile, Germany and Greece both ruled out military involvement, with Berlin stating there would be no participation "not even in any effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means."

The episode has exposed a structural tension that Brussels has long sought to paper over: Europe commands significant economic weight but limited hard-power leverage in the sea lanes that sustain its industrial base. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have all suspended Hormuz transits, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope — adding weeks and millions to per-voyage costs at precisely the moment European manufacturers can least afford it.

For the Commission's newly minted Industrial Maritime Strategy, announced with considerable fanfare just a fortnight ago, the crisis offers an unscripted stress test. Strategic autonomy, it turns out, begins with keeping the lights on.