EU Shipping Sector Faces Soft Demand and Rising Uncertainty as Year-End Nears

As 2025 draws to a close, Europe’s maritime shipping industry is confronting a challenging mix of weak demand, falling freight rates, and structural overcapacity — a situation that could reshape trade flows and pressure logistics providers across the continent.

Major players in container shipping, including CMA CGM of France, have flagged a “tough year ahead,” warning that capacity added through newly ordered vessels is colliding with slackening global trade. Across the Atlantic and on Asia-Europe routes, spot rates have dropped sharply — the slump has eroded margins for carriers accustomed to the boom years triggered by pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions.

Still, not all signals are negative. A.P. Moller - Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, recently raised the lower end of its 2025 full-year profit forecast, citing a rebound in container volumes driven by Asian exports — even as freight rates remain under pressure. The company acknowledged, however, that persistent regional instability, including transit risks through sensitive zones such as the Red Sea, continues to cloud the outlook.

Meanwhile, the shift toward cleaner fuel standards, long pushed by the International Maritime Organization and other regulators, remains slow. Despite 37 % of new cargo-ship orders this year being for vessels capable of burning lower-polluting fuels, overall gross tonnage ordered is sharply down from 2024, reflecting uncertainty among buyers about how quickly emissions rules will take effect.

For European shippers and logistics firms, the confluence of soft freight demand, excess capacity and the slow pace of green-fuel adoption suggests a bumpy ride ahead. As global trade patterns shift, carriers may need to rethink asset utilisation and cost structures, just as tighter environmental rules loom on the horizon.