Both Gulf Chokepoints Now Shut as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Seize Up Together

The two maritime arteries carrying most of the Gulf's oil to Europe and Asia are now effectively closed simultaneously, a dual blockade that has severed normal commercial tanker traffic at both ends of the region and pushed the operational risk picture to its most severe of the conflict.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward assessed on Thursday that both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait are effectively shut to normal commercial tanker movements, for different reasons on each side.

The Strait of Hormuz recorded zero tanker crossings on 27 July, with all six transits that day routed through the IRGC-controlled northern corridor under Iranian supervision. At the southern chokepoint, Bab el-Mandeb crossings have fallen 22 per cent since the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping on 20 July, with tanker transits down 39 per cent and Saudi-linked crossings down 46 per cent.

The insurance market has amplified the squeeze. Lloyd's underwriters began excluding vessels with any Saudi port history from war-risk cover on 24 July, reviving pre-2024 clearance routines and driving the sharpest fall in tanker transits. A Houthi official claimed a strike on the products tanker NCC Ghazal on 28 July, after the ship had been running dark for five days.

Trade has not stopped so much as gone underground. Windward flagged 102 potential blockade-breaker vessels queued against the line, two of which are assessed to have crossed undetected while operating dark.

Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal is loading entirely with transponders switched off, and China-linked supertankers appear to have secured an exemption from the Houthi blockade, moving Yanbu-loaded crude eastbound.

With roughly nine million barrels a day of pipeline bypass capacity now lacking a clear exit, European importers face their tightest energy-supply margin of the crisis as autumn contracting nears.